Thèses

Vulnerability and adaptation potential of high variable renewable energy penetration electricity systems tosocioeconomic scenarios of heating electrification and air conditioning adoption coupled to climate change : the case of France.
- Delort Joan
, 2024 . The electricity generation sector is undergoing profound changes. In all european economies, thepenetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) is rising and is expected to reach important levels in the near future. These future mixes need to be able to provide secure and affordable electricity while subject to stringent ecological constraints. We investigate in this work two processes affecting the electricity generation sector: climate change, and electrification through heating electrification and air conditioning adoption. In particular, we ask how vulnerable is the electricity generation sector to these processes and how both these processes affect the optimal investment decisions in VRE capacity. Because climate change and the electrification potential are region-specific, we focus in the particular case of France. We show that an increase of the heating temperature sensitive demand favors wind penetration while the modification of the cooling demand along the extensive margin only has no effect in the case of France. We further show that climate change has no adverse impacts if impacts on the dispatchable producers are not accounted for, and that changes in demand are the driving factor of impacts on the optimal investment decisions. We finally show that socioeconomic change is potentially the driving force influencing vulnerability and investment decisions, but that socioeconomic and climate change impacts should be assessed jointly to issue relevant policymaking advice. Overall optimal mixes and associated costs change substantially with changing socioeconomic and climate conditions, with the former having a potentially greater impact than the latter. We suggest that further research focuses on producing more integratedassessments of potential future changes impacts on the electricity generation sector, by being exhaustive at the same time on the elements of the electricity generation sector considered and on the processes impacting them.